FOX Weather meteorologists Jane Minar and Ian Oliver take a look at what’s in store for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Ready or not, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is here. NOAA released a forecast with the most storms ever recorded for its May forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November. 30. The National Hurricane Center chose this six-month period because it represents approximately 97% of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanesaccording to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division.
The month of April in fact welcomed the first tropical disturbance. Although an early disturbance does not signal an extremely active hurricane season, experts’ forecasts do. NOAA forecasts show a well-above-average season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes. Other forecasters agreed.
NOAA released its forecast for the most aggressive hurricane season on record
NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2024 pre-hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
BRYAN NORCROSS: REASONS TO BE PREPARED FOR A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON
“The two tropical reasons for an aggressive forecast are: 1. The extremely warm Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, and 2. The expectation that a the girl will develop in the Pacific during the heart of hurricane season,” wrote FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross. “A La Niña most often produces an upper-level wind pattern over the Atlantic that is relatively conducive to storm development.
Norcross said Atlantic water temperature and El Nino/La Nina conditions account for 70 to 80 percent of tropical activity during the season.
El Nino stubbornly clings to life, but the La Nina pattern, fueling the hurricane, still looms
Sea surface temperatures in the main cyclone development region relative to average.
“What’s interesting here is that there are 21 names on the list. Not every letter of the alphabet has a name that corresponds to it. So it’s 21,” said Ian Oliver, FOX meteorologist. “But the consensus among all agencies that issue a hurricane forecast is 24 storms. So we could see the start of this new additional list this year.”
Until 2021, forecasters used Greek letters to name excessive storms. This only happened twice. In 2021, the World Meteorological Organization, which maintains the list of names used during hurricane season, developed a list of overflow names.
Alberto will be the first tropical storm or hurricane name in the 2024 season. If we go by William, the additional list of names will be used, and it starts with Adria.
HOW ARE HURRICANES NAMED?
BEWARE OF STORM “I”: IT HAS MORE RETIREES THAN ANY LETTER USED FOR THE NAMES OF ATLANTIC HURRICANES
“The average peak of the season occurs later in the summer, in August and September and extends into October,” said FOX meteorologist Jane Minar.
While this doesn’t necessarily mean an aggressive start to hurricane season, sea surface temperatures are now similar to those typically seen in August.
WHERE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES TYPICALLY OCCUR DURING EACH MONTH OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) runs from June 1 to November. 30. As shown in the graph above, the peak of the season is in September. 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur at any time during the hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
“When you have a basin that feels more like peak season, does it act like peak season because of the heat we have? » said Olivier. “And again, as you’ve highlighted over the next few months, this transition to La Niña.”
“So there are some question marks. We’re looking at June, looking for those local storms (in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean),” Minar said. “But usually it’s the end of the month when we see the first named storm.”
Kevin Guthire of the Florida Department of Emergency Management urged everyone to prepare now. He said not to worry about the number of storms expected, to prepare the same way.
EVACUATION OF A LOVED ONE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS CAN BE MORE SCARY THAN A HURRICANE
Kevin Guthrie of the Florida Division of Emergency Management warns not to wait to prepare for this year’s hurricane season, it appears to be very active. He has a 5-pronged preparation approach.
HOW TO PREPARE YOUR VEHICLE FOR A HURRICANE
“So we have five basic things that we ask people to do in a potentially supercharged season. What we want people to be ready for in theirs,” Guthire said. FOX Weather. “We, those responsible for managing the state of emergency, are preparing for… a total of six storms. We don’t want six storms to hit Florida, but that’s what we’re preparing for.
Guthrie offered these five rules for hurricane preparedness:
- Make a plan.
- Build your escape/emergency kit.
- Know your home and know your area. Know how strong winds your home can withstand. Guthrie said Florida building codes changed in 2004. Know your home’s elevation and flood zone. Know your evacuation zone.
- Keep the car half filled with gasoline at all times. This avoids a rush to gas stations.
- If you evacuate, don’t evacuate too much. Go if invited and travel tens of miles, not hundreds of miles. This helps keep roads clear for first responders.
The FOX Weather app is a helpful way to keep tabs on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. You’ll receive alerts about the season, be able to track storms as they occur, and get tips to help you prepare.