Michael Brennan spent more than a decade helping prepare forecasts and warning messages at the National Hurricane Center before being named its director just before the 2023 hurricane season. This role places him firmly on the front lines in communicating storm risks to the public.
While this summer is expected to bring more storms than usual, preparing for the season that begins June 1 is a topic on the minds of many people living in coastal regions from Texas to Maine.
Brennan knows all too well the confusion spread by misinformation before the storm and the tragedies that occur during and after storms. So he spends a lot of time thinking about how the center can get the right messages to people, especially when they are bombarded with information that isn’t always particularly useful.
His biggest concern? Let people be prepared and not complacent.
Here are five things Brennan says you need to know to reduce your level of risk and stress when a hurricane approaches.
Know your risks
“It’s about knowing your risk, knowing if you live in an evacuation zone in the event of a storm surge. This is the foundation of your hurricane preparedness plan, because if you’re asked to leave your home, you need to know where you’re going, how you’re going to get there, what you’re going to do. take with you and how you will care for your pets, loved ones and friends who may have difficulty evacuating.
“Don’t try to figure it all out when the storm hits because it’s stressful enough,” Brennan said. “Find out now.” You have time to determine what your risk is. »
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Evacuations mean fleeing the storm and its resulting damage
“You are also fleeing the conditions that occur after a storm. Evacuations aim to remove people from highly vulnerable communities after a storm.
“Fort Myers Beach, after Hurricane Ian, was not an environment you would want to be in after an event. …There are no medical services, they won’t be able to help you in a medical emergency.
“There’s no need to evacuate hundreds of miles, just get out of the storm surge zone and that can be up to 10 miles in some cases. Find a friend, relative, or shelter, somewhere to make evacuation feasible, because there is a cost and there is complexity in every evacuation decision people make.
Water is the deadliest threat
“Water risks often don’t have much to do with the strength of a storm from a wind perspective, especially for rainfall-driven flooding, which kills about 60 percent of people in this country in tropical storms and hurricanes have to do a lot more with the speed at which the storm moves and the amount of precipitation, which has little to do with the strength of a storm from a storm’s perspective. wind.
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“We lost more people to surf and currents last year in the United States than any other hurricane hazard. … This represents a growing risk and danger, particularly along the East Coast : the east coast of Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina and the large seaside states.
Trust federal forecasters, not computer models
“So many people… look at every run of the GFS and European computer models. Is it left, right, faster, slower, what’s wrong with it?”
“We use much more than that when we do our hurricane center forecasts. Our forecasts are far more consistent than any individual model. That’s one of the roles of human forecasters, to establish that consistency, that continuity This helps us tell this story and get this message out about areas threatened by a storm.
“NHC forecasts are not based on an individual model, a cycle, we use dozens, even hundreds of (model) ensembles and the best model guidance from all modeling centers. And the combination of these guidance tends to be better than any other individual model, so we really need to stop chasing these predictions and stressing ourselves and our users.
“We know that people listen to what we say and we choose our words and our messages very carefully. It’s a balance you have to find between awareness and panic, because you want to make sure that people have information. They must act and reinforce information from their state and local authorities to take these preparedness measures.
Get to know your neighbors
“So many people are moving out of non-hurricane-prone areas. If you have a new neighbor, go and say, ‘Hey, you know, hurricane season is coming, here’s what I’m doing to prepare my family. Here’s what what we need to think about in our community where we live.
“Some people are more likely to listen to their neighbor they know and trust who will come and talk over the fence about the hurricane risk in their neighborhood.”
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“Community is how we get through these types of events, preparation, recovery. Your friends and your neighbors will be the people who are there, the people you can hopefully count on. Try to have some make a community effort.”
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate and environment for USA TODAY. Contact her at dpulver@gannett.com or @dinahvp.