Some Independents and Republicans May Change Position After Guilty Verdict

Top line

Nearly half of independents said they want former President Donald Trump to abandon his 2024 campaign after a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his criminal case. secret money, according to a new survey published on Saturday, following another survey. Friday showed other warning signs for the Republican candidate.


A morning poll conducted Friday found that 54% of registered voters “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the guilty verdict, and although 49% said Trump should be sentenced to probation, more than 44% said that he should be sentenced to prison (68% of respondents said he should be fined).

About 49% of independents in the poll said they think Trump should withdraw from the presidential race, just one day after he was convicted at his criminal trial in New York.

The survey also found that 15% of likely Republican voters think Trump should abandon his campaign, while 8% of self-described Trump supporters said the same.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken just hours after Trump’s guilty verdict was read was also released. 56% of Republican voters said the conviction did not change their vote, while 35% said they were more likely to vote for Trump after the verdict.

Still: 10% of Republicans according to the Reuters/Ipsos survey, which polled more than 2,500 American adults, said they were less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction, while a quarter of voters Independents said the same thing (18% of independent polls). said they were more likely to vote for Trump after the conviction.

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Among Republican voters surveyed in the Morning Consult poll, 77% said Trump’s conviction was politically motivated, as did 43% of independent voters who said the same.


Trump was convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in New York, stemming from his repayment of a secret payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to cover up an alleged affair before the 2016 presidential election. Trump, who has denied the affair, has claimed that the reimbursement to his former fixer Michael Cohen was purely a legal expense and has repeatedly said the affair is a “witch hunt,” claiming without evidence that prosecutors for New York had worked with President Joe Biden to indict Trump. . The former president said this week that he plans to appeal the conviction. He faces up to 136 years in prison and a $170,000 fine if he receives the maximum sentence.

Key context

Trump has been charged in four separate criminal cases since launching his 2024 presidential campaign, and previous polls have indicated that those cases could potentially cost him the election (Trump has pleaded not guilty to all charges). About 46% of respondents in an April Quinnipiac poll said they believed Trump committed a crime by hiding hush money payments, while 46% of respondents in a New York Times/Siena poll d April said Trump should be convicted in the hush money case. In an AP/Norc poll released in May, about half of respondents said Trump would be unfit for office if convicted in New York.


Trump and Biden remain neck and neck, according to several recent polls, although third-party candidates have dented Biden’s re-election hopes. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Thursday found that Biden maintains a slight 50-48 percent advantage over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, although Trump would beat Trump by four points when third-party candidates, such as the independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. Biden also appears to be losing support in key swing states, with a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll finding that Trump leads Biden in seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Biden narrowly won six of those states in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina.

Further reading

ForbesBiden counters. Trump 2024 election polls: Biden leads Trump by 2 points, but loses with RFK Jr. On the ballot, latest poll shows
ForbesTrump’s Hush Money lawsuit hasn’t changed voters’ minds, but it could still cost him the election, polls show

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