It was expected that Donald Trump’s conviction would cause him to sink in the polls. This is not the case

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election do not appear to have been significantly affected by the guilty verdict in his secret trial, polls show.

On May 30, a New York City jury found Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records in an attempt to conceal the payment of money to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the election. 2016.

Trump, the presumptive 2024 Republican presidential nominee, has denied any wrongdoing. He claims the trial was “rigged” and that the case was an attempt to stop him from winning in November against President Joe Biden.

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump Tower on May 31 in New York. Polls suggest Trump’s hush money conviction won’t hurt his 2024 election blank.

David Dee Delgado/Getty Images

Although some polls indicate that Trump was harmed by his felony conviction in a close race, more recent surveys also indicate that the trial did not seriously damage his White House hopes.

An Issues and Insights (I&I)/TIPP poll released Monday found that Trump and Biden are tied at 41% in a head-to-head matchup. This is an improvement for Trump, who trailed Biden by two points (42 to 40) in an I&I/TIPP poll in May.

The latest I&I/TIPP survey was conducted between May 29 and 31, with the polling group suggesting that a “significant share” of the 1,675 registered voters who participated in the survey would know that Trump had been convicted of 34 charges. .

The poll also found that independents remain largely in favor of Trump over Biden (38% to 26%). Support from this demographic could prove vital to the outcome of several key states that could determine the winner.

“If anyone expected a sudden mass exodus of Trump voters after his legal defeat, they were certainly disappointed,” I&I editor Terry Jones wrote in his analysis of the poll data. “If anything, Trump’s hand appears to have strengthened some immediately after his conviction.”

Separately, a Morning Consult survey of 10,404 registered voters, conducted between May 31 and June 2 in the days following the jury verdict in New York, found that Trump now leads Biden by one point ( 44% versus 43%).

In a Morning Consult survey conducted on May 31, the day after Trump’s conviction, Biden led Trump by one point (45% to 44%) in a poll of 2,200 registered voters.

News week We have reached out to Trump’s campaign team for comment via email.

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the UK, has previously suggested that support for Trump could further “melt” in the long term once voters become more aware of the importance of seeing a convicted felon run for office.

“Opinion about Trump is already widespread across the country, and this verdict will not change that,” he said. News week.

“In the short term, his polling, and even his fundraising, could get a boost, but that could dissipate in the weeks and months ahead as voters move past the emotion over the Court’s decision and will focus on the fact that the former president was convicted by a jury of his peers: 12 citizens who weighed the evidence and simply didn’t believe him.

Trump, who has vowed to appeal his conviction, is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11. Most legal experts suggested that Trump was unlikely to receive any prison time.

Speaking outside the New York courtroom after his sentencing, Trump called the proceedings a “disgrace,” adding: “The real verdict will be delivered on November 5th by the people.” »

Updated 05/06/2024, 9:09 a.m. ET: The title has been changed.